The LCD Market
As the LCD market comes off of a healthy 2007, it is projected that 2008 will be another strong year. Despite concerns of a global economic slow down, the supply of glass substrate will shape the market as supply continues to be constrained. There is little relief in sight as additional 8G production lines are not expected to be running at full capacity until 2009. Inevitably, LCD consumers will have to mange their supply chains carefully against eminent shortages.
Notebook Panel
Historically the first quarter is the slow season for notebook PC’s, and OEMs are managing their panel inventory accordingly. As a result, the manufacturers are not expecting price fluctuations for direct prices beyond the range of 2%-3% over the next month.
However we are seeing strong open market activity for the mainstream 15.4” sizes as independents look to take on stocking positions in anticipation of shortages. Although not as active, stocking independents are also taking positions on 14.1” wide screen sizes. These sizes offer a similar viewing area to the 15.4” at a lighter weight and a smaller size. We expect to see panel makers shift capacity to the 15.4”, driving a shortage of the 14.1” as we get deeper into Q1, resulting in price parity between 14.1” and 15.4” sizes. We have seen recent market movements on the Samsung panel LTN141W1-L04 BV and the CMO panel N154C1-L02.
Monitor Panel
Monitor panels have been stable and are expected to remain stable over the next month. There is limited demand coming off of the holiday build season and the continued market transition to mobile applications. With little indication of clear cut trends, most of the stocking companies prefer to observe the market rather than take stocking positions.
Although the demands for all major sizes (15” to 19”) are somewhat stable at this time, we expect the overall shortage on glass will ultimately affect the monitor panel market. However, it is difficult at this time to say what sizes and models will be impacted the most. We are seeing activity in the market for both Samsung’s LTM150XH-L06 and Sharp’s LQ150X1LNG2 panels, perhaps offering insight into what is going to happen in the future.
TV Panel
After a very heated and active 4th quarter in 2007, the market is taking a breather as we move into 2008. To date, there has been negligible open market activity to draw market trends. However, without enough glass supply to support the overall LCD market, inevitably TV panels will be impacted at some point.
Industrial panel
It is too early in the first quarter, and there has been very little market activity to forecast upcoming trends for industrial panels. To date, overall supply/demand is in balance. Prices are expected to remain firm in the first half of January until the market takes shape. Expect to see lead times stretch as other areas of the LCD market heat up as manufacturers steal capacity to feed the healthy appetite of the consumer market.
