Microsoft's Vista Drives LCD Market
The general trend is the purchase of larger LCD screens. However, Microsoft's
Vista is hastening this transition as consumers want to take advantage of Vista's
enhanced capabilities. Manufacturers are responding by transitioning capacity
away from the over saturated television market in order to meet Vista’s
driven demand.
As PCs play a greater role in the daily lives of consumers, expect to see this
trend to impact the LCD market by pushing the convergence of monitor panels
and LCD televisions. As consumers become more and more tech savvy, they will
demand dual functionality, rather than function as a stand alone item.
Monitor
Horizon has seen an open market increase in demand for 19" and 22"
panels with some models in shortage, particularly in the wide format. Two models
in high demand are Samsung's LTM220M1-L01 and AU's M220EW01 V1. We expect to
see demand continue to increase, but one does need to pay attention to the manufacturers
transitioning their capacity from television screens to monitor screens - supply
could potentially catch up with demand. Evidence of this is LG Phillip's sixth
generation factory producing monitors rather than televisions, as originally
intended. We expect to see prices for 19" wide aspect ratio and 22"
panels to increase anywhere from three to five percent over the next month.
Expect to see prices for 17" and 19" 3:4 aspect ratio (ASR) monitors
drop as demand decreases. It will stabilize towards the end of the quarter as
capacity shifts and excess inventories burn off. We expect to see prices drop
anywhere from five to ten percent for 17" and 19" 3:4 aspect ratio
monitors over the next thirty days.
Notebook Panels
Vista is also pushing demand in the notebook segment for wide screen panels
resulting in short supply for 14" and 15.4" widescreen panels. Prices
have increased three to five dollars per panel since February. We expect to
see continued upward pricing pressure driven by low inventory levels. This is
driven by manufacturers building to customer forecasts rather than building
to anticipated demand and Vista driving increased consumer demand. Two panels
that have been very active in the open market AU's B154EW01 and B141EW02 panels.
We are also seeing demand for 4:3 ASR AU panels B141XG09 V3 and B150XG02 V4.
We believe that this is an isolated shortage and is not indicative of the market
as a whole.
Television
Currently we are in the historic slow season, resulting in limited demand until
July when demand will increase in anticipation of the fall quarter. Prices for
32" - 46" are down five dollars to ten dollars from February. Two
numbers that are in demand in the open market are AU's 32" panel, T315XW01
V.5 and their 42" panel, T420XW01 V.5.
The convergence of monitor panels and television panels driven by PCs are playing
a greater role in consumer multi media applications that will have an impact
on the market. It is a question of in what form?
Industrial Panels
We have seen little change in the industrial demand market with demand very
stable. The action continues to be around the 15" sizes with strong open
market demand for AU panel M150XN07 and Sharp panel LQ150X1LW71N. We have been
hearing some rumblings around some LG and NEC 23" sized panels going into
obsolescence, and becoming harder to find in the market. Part numbers to watch
for are NEC's panel NL12876AC39-01 and LG part numbers LC120W01-A2K6 and LC230W01AK8.
On an ancillary note, we are seeing industrial OEMs looking for back light
replacements rather than replacing the panels themselves. As a result, this
is creating a bit of a cottage industry within the LCD market.
