Market Perspective
LCD Market Is Beginning To Find Its Identity.
Over the past few weeks we have seen the LCD market begin to take shape with
surprising demand from the Notebook segment on a variety of sizes and aspect
ratios. As expected, mainstream monitor prices and television panel pricing
continues to sag with television pricing leading the charge. Demand from the
industrial and medical sectors is continuing and includes a variety of customers
from the open market.
With the television segment offering the highest potential for consuming capacity,
the television market is a strong measurement of the overall health of the LCD
market.
Monitor
Prices for 17” and 19” panels are expected to fall another $5,
which for some manufacturers is dangerously close to manufacturing costs. The
20”- 22” and wide screen formats will fall at a faster pace as manufacturers
look to attract buyers. This in turn may add further downward pressure on 17”
and 19” sizes. It seems that we have fallen into the classic mathematical
parabola curve of technology pricing. Prices are being pushed downward through
the introduction of new products to the market.
On the other side of the curve, we are seeing spot shortages on 15” sizes.
Manufacturers are moving production to larger sizes in order to meet consumer
demand. Horizon expects to see supply constrain in the future, further driving
the prices on 15” sizes. Two 15” panels that we have seen in demand
are Sharp’s LQ150X1 series and AU’s B150XG01.
Notebook
The market is gaining traction as manufactures are pushing to align production
with demand by becoming stricter with assigning capacity based on customer’s
forecasts. With a disappointing fourth quarter, OEMs were conservative with
Q1 forecasts. Manufacturers assigned capacity accordingly, leaving little room
for upside. Horizon is seeing strong open market demand for 14.1” and
15” sizes in 4:3 aspect sizes as well as for 14.0” and 17”
sizes for 16:9 aspect sizes. This is indicating a healthier market than anticipated.
Two panels in strong demand are AU’s 5” B150XG01 V.7 and AU’s
B141XG0-V.3.
At Horizon, we are also seeing strong activity for the 13.3” wide screen
panels, specifically for AU part number AU B133EW01 and LG panel LP133WX1-TLA1.
These two panels are fetching a strong premium over direct pricing.
Industrial and Medical
As we detailed in our last update, OEMs are designing new panels into their
product categories. Because of this transition, we are seeing an increase in
the volume of excess in the open market. This is creating some strong cost saving
opportunities for savvy buyers.
A trend that is becoming apparent is the transition away for 15” sizes
for industrial and medical companies as manufacturers are shifting capacity
to larger sizes. The OEMs that are slow to transition designs to larger sizes
will face long lead times and potential shortages. Horizon is already seeing
a strong demand from this segment particularly with these two panels - Optrex’s
panel T51863d15OJ and Sharp’s LQ150XGN series which are both in high demand.
TV
Despite continued over capacity from industry pundits, they are projecting
a slow down in price drops due to an increase in orders from television manufacturers.
Manufacturers are replenishing stocks after a zero stock policy following the
fourth quarter. Following the typical technology trend described earlier, larger
sizes of 32”- 42” are expected to drop from $20 - $50 dollars while
smaller sizes are expected to remain the same.
