November 28, 2006
After nearly four months of upward pricing pressure, Horizon is beginning to see LCD prices flatten due to unfulfilled demand expectations in Asia for pre - Chinese New Year buying.
Clearly, there is dichotomy in the LCD market between the commodity products of Notebooks, Monitors, and TVs, and the esoteric needs of the industrial and after service market. Both markets require up to date business intelligence, in order to develop the necessary agility to gain a competitive advantage over competition.
Monitor
The dumping of panels early in the month has had its toll on the monitor market with December prices expected to drop 1.5%-3.0% for the 17" and 19" sizes. Pricing on 15" sizes are not expected to be impacted, pricing most likely will remain flat. The softening of the market is not entirely unexpected, as manufacturers have been liquidating inventories through the open market in early November after a quarter of strong demand. However, there are select models that are fetching a price premium on the open market, including; Samsung LTM170E8-L01, LG-Phillips LM190E01 and LM190E02 series.
Notebook
Horizon expects to see little change in prices for notebook panels for the month of December. 16:9 wide screen ratio panels in 15.2, 15.4 and 17.1 sizes are moving into the mainstream, replacing 3:2 viewing ratio panels. 15.2", 15.4", and 17.1" panels geared towards high end systems have been in high demand in the open market over the past few weeks, including; Toshiba part number LTD154EZ0D, Sharp part number LQ154M1LW12, and LG-Philips part number LP171WX2-B4. All are high-end models with high resolutions with the 16:9 viewing ratio.
Service demand remains robust, with strong demand for 15.4 and 17 sizes fetching a premium depending on the part number. We have seen a strong demand for the Sharp panel LQ154M1LW12/02, LG panel LP154WU1-A1, and AU panel B152EW01 V.2.
Industrial
As a whole, Horizon expects to see little price changes for production volumes of panels used in industrial applications throughout the month of December. Demand remains robust across a portfolio of sizes including; 4, 6.4, 8.4, 10.4 and 12.1 sizes. Of particular interest is Hydis declaring bankruptcy. It is interesting to see the impact it is having on the tablet market with many of the manufacturers turning to alternative suppliers. In turn, this is causing shortages across all manufacturers of 12.1 sizes. Horizon is seeing a strong demand for Toshiba panel LTD121KA0S, a strong demand for Toshiba 4 panel part number LTM04C380K, and Mitsubishis 8.4 panel for part number AA084VC05.
TV
Panel pricing for most LCD TV panel sizes are expected to drop. Despite healthy demand, prices are expected to drop at least 3% in December as manufacturers fight for market share. Under particular pricing pressure are the 32" sizes which have dropped $15 for the second half of November and are expected to remain weak into December. As AU positions itself as one of the larger TV panel suppliers in 2007, its new T315XW01 has become one of the more popular models.
One needs to pay close attention to the TV LCD market as we come to the close of the holiday build schedule. As demand tapers off expect to see manufacturers shift capacity to other product lines, potentially driving prices downward.
