At The Close Of The Year, Manufacturers Are Making Allocation Adjustments.
As we approach the end of the holiday build cycle, the panel market is showing signs of stabilization. However, OEMs are not completely out of the woods yet, as there are select sizes that are still under pressure. As manufacturers approach the New Year, they are reallocating capacity away from maturing markets. Manufacturers are reallocating some of their monitor capacities to support growing markets such as the mid size panels used in supporting digital frames. They are also reallocating capacities to support the continued growth in the notebook segment.
Notebook
As detailed in our previous update, the notebook market has been slow as a result of the slow holiday build schedule. Further contributing to the easing of supply constraints is several OEMs pushing back on deliveries due to component shortages in batteries and notebook drives - not allowing manufacturers to build complete systems. When these shortages ease, we may see this recently established equilibrium upset.
We are seeing availability and prices for 13.3”, 14.4” and 17” sizes in both 16:9 and 4:3 aspect ratios stabilize. While prices for 15.4”, the most popular size, are expected to increase two to three dollars per panel due to continued strong demand. We have seen a strong demand for Samsung’s panel LTN154XA-01 as well as certain AUO/QDI models such as QD15TL02 Rev 04.
Monitor
After nearly eight months of price increases, we are seeing a similar stabilization in monitors as we are currently seeing with notebook panels. As always, one can find spot shortages, but overall, open market activity has slowed. However, we do not expect to see prices drop as manufactures are anticipating sales to rebound in the New Year. They are making allocation adjustments away from panels to support growth areas such as mid-size screens for digital frames. We have seen strong open market demand for Samsung’s 15” panel, part number LM150X08-TLB1 and Samsung’s 19” panel, part number LTM190E4-L02.
However, on a more micro level, events to pay attention to, that may affect supply, is the standardization fight between AU who is promoting a 15” wide monitor size versus CMO who is rolling out a 15.6” size. The fear is that the 15.6” is too close to the notebook 15.4” and OEMs may ask for the same pricing for their notebook panels as they are receiving for their monitor panels. However, the cost of the notebook panel is higher due to inverter requirements. One needs to also pay attention to unanticipated demand from the developing pressure on the market as we saw this past summer, which further upsets market dynamics.
Industrial Panel
The industrial market has been relatively stable with localized supply disruptions. Industrial panel consumers should pay close attention to their orders with Sharp. We are
hearing that lead times with Sharp are stretching from thirty to sixty days to ninety days in many instances. We are seeing strong open market demand for the Sharp 12.1” panel LQ121S1DG series as well as LG 6.4” model LB064V02-TD01. We are also seeing strong demand for 19” monitor panels used in industrial applications across all manufacturers such as AU’s part number M190EG01.
TV Panel
LCD panels used to build TVs continue to be tight for 32” sizes and smaller, with the actual 32” size in continued shortage. Due to the high margin on 40” plus sizes, manufacturers have been heavily promoting the larger sizes. There might be a chance that prices will come down slightly in order to drive sales.
